Taiwan's volunteer military shrinks amid growing Chinese aggression

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KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan: As China continues and intensifies its campaign of aggression against the island, Taiwan's military is struggling to reach recruitment goals for professional personnel, and the challenges to reversing this situation are formidable. 

Between 2022 and 2024, some 12,000 service people left Taiwan's military. Officials in both the government and the military are voicing concern, and once again, there is talk of enlisting foreign migrants into the armed forces, an idea that has been under extremely informal "discussions" for over two decades. 

The simplest reason for the drop-off is math. This self-ruled democracy has the second-lowest birthrate in Asia, following South Korea. Military pay could be better but is generally considered competitive. Low morale is often over-hyped but is a factor, as is strong competition from the private sector. 

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"They've been talking about 'migrant troops' for close to a quarter of a century! But not even a single official panel or committee has come close to examining the idea," Dr. Chang Ching, a senior research fellow with the R.O.C. Society for Strategic Studies who served in the Navy for several decades, told Fox News Digital. 

"I'll unreservedly confess the truth as I see it: most Taiwanese aren't willing to make the sacrifices required for victory in war. Migrant workers serving as essentially mercenaries would only highlight how few of our citizens are willing to fight - even to simply maintain the status quo of de facto independence," Chang said.  

Taiwan needs a strong military to deter its hostile neighbor located roughly 100 miles to the west. In recent years, China has stepped up both bombastic threats and incursions into Taiwan's air and sea defense zones as it attempts to squeeze Taiwan into submission. 

American Christopher Clifford is better known in Taiwan as YouTuber "Uncle Topher." His resume is a big reason why around 112,000 Taiwanese frequently watch his videos on geopolitics. Over 20 years ago, "Uncle Topher" was Captain Christopher Clifford, U.S. 101 Airborne Division. Serving during the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq gave him an up-close look at the difficulties of invasion, and the even harder challenges of occupation. 

Speaking to Fox News Digital in Kaohsiung City, Clifford said that much of his content is aimed at challenging "China invasion sensationalism." He often points out to viewers that, as a result of China's now-reversed "One-Child Policy," Chinese men of fighting age are commonly highly valued "only sons," men who have a traditional duty to carry on family linages. More importantly, says Clifford, is the economic toll a war would have on not just the region, but the planet - a conflict Clifford believes China may literally not be able to afford.    

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He said that falling troop numbers are a problem but pointed out that most modern militaries - including China's - are facing enlistment and retention difficulties. "Taiwan's military is making some much-needed changes - allowing tattoos and modifying insane height restrictions," he said. "You couldn't join before if you were over 6"6'." 

However, Clifford sees a future where wars are waged with drones and keyboards. "Cyberattacks and misinformation are, I'd argue, bigger threats than a PRC version of Normandy. People compare Taiwan to Ukraine. But Taiwan is in almost no way comparable to Ukraine or any other conflict area on Earth." 

Much debate is about whether the United States would intervene should China attempt an invasion or blockade. "Of course, I understand the logic behind the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, but I fear far too many Taiwanese people - especially younger people - are counting on a rescue from Uncle Sam," Chang explained.

He is not optimistic about refilling the ranks, explaining that pension cuts of between 15-20% for retired Taiwan military personnel in 2018 "alienated a critical pillar of the ROC Armed Forces - families in Taiwan that had a 'tradition of service.'" Speaking during an interview near the navy's headquarters in Kaohsiung, Chang said, "Taiwanese born in the 1990s, for example, don't give much thought to what province of China an ancestor came from, but they will listen when grandpa says, 'Don't sign up! They'll break their promise to care for you, just like they did to me.'"

Taiwan's government in 2018 said without the cuts, the entire pension program would go bankrupt, and many Taiwanese agreed with the decision to slash what they saw as disproportionately high military pensions. Those who opposed the cuts, however, saw it as a betrayal. 

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From the 1950s through the early 2000s, men in Taiwan served at least two years as conscripts. However, as Taiwan graduated into a full democracy, both of Taiwan's main political parties worked to reduce (and eventually eliminate) mandatory military service. By 2013, conscription was a condensed four-month "boot camp."

In 2022, then-President Tsai Ing-wen announced a return to the one-year service requirement in place before 2013. While some were unhappy, there were no major protests or efforts to reverse the decision that took effect in January 2024. That same month, Taiwanese voters elected then-Vice President William Lai to succeed the term-limited Tsai. Lai is openly despised by Beijing and relations with China have only deteriorated since his election win.

More than 800,000 migrant workers (mostly from Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines) reside on the island, according to government stats. Once again, the idea has reemerged that some of them could be the solution to refilling the ranks. 

Clifford believes that, while no easy task, there are ways of making it work, perhaps in exchange for the equivalent of an American Green Card. "They could start with a foreign legion of mechanics, engineers, cooks, etc. In peacetime, they would assist with construction projects and disaster relief. In wartime, they could be responsible for setting up other defenses. No rifle required."  

The U.S. is Taiwan's strongest ally and its major supplier of arms. President Lai says he hopes to convince parliament to significantly increase defense spending. Taiwan is waiting for already purchased U.S. arms valued at almost $22 billion, according to the Cato Institute. Not having enough trained people able to use these weapons, however, could be a more serious issue than the large backlog.