More polling problems for this blue state Democrat governor facing re-election next year

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Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's approval ratings are holding slightly in positive territory, but a new poll indicates a majority of New Yorkers would still prefer someone else to win the 2026 election for governor in the Empire State.

A Siena College poll released on Tuesday also suggests that Rep. Elise Stefanik is the polling frontrunner among three major Republicans considering runs for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, in the race to challenge Hochul next year.

According to the poll, which was conducted May 12-15, 36% of registered voters in New York state said they would vote to re-elect Hochul to a second four-year term, with a majority (55%) saying they wanted someone else. 

It is a 10-point negative movement for Hochul compared to Siena's April survey, when 39% of those questioned said they were prepared to vote to re-elect the governor and 48% who wanted someone else.

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Fifty-one percent of Democrats surveyed in the new poll said at this early point in the 2026 election cycle they are prepared to re-elect Hochul, with 38% of Democrats saying they want "someone else."

The percentage of voters who prefer another candidate jumps to 64% among independents and 82% among Republicans in blue state New York.

"Even more Republicans - 82% up from 68% last month - and independents - 64% up from 55% - prefer 'someone else' to be the next governor, while a small majority of Democrats, 51%, say they are prepared to reelect her," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. 

Hochul, who at the time was the state's lieutenant governor, in August 2021 was sworn in as New York's first female governor, after three-term Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace amid multiple scandals.

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She defeated then-Rep. Lee Zeldin by just over six points in 2022 to win a full four-year term steering New York. Zeldin's showing was the best by a Republican gubernatorial nominee in blue-state New York since then-GOP Gov. George Pataki won re-election to a third term in 2002.

In July of last year, Hochul announced her intention to run for re-election in 2026.

The governor's approval ratings in the new poll are slightly above water, at 50% approval and 46% disapproval, while her favorable rating is just underwater, at 44% favorable and 46% unfavorable.

The poll was conducted after the governor and the legislature reached final agreement on a $254 billion budget, which includes provisions for tax cuts, increased benefits and investments in various areas like education and healthcare.

When asked whether issues the governor touted in the budget - inflation rebate checks, middle-class tax cuts, free public school meals, and increasing the child tax credit - will make New York more affordable, the poll indicates 52% said a lot or somewhat, with 43% saying not very much or not at all.

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The poll indicates Hochul continues to hold a wide lead over her two potential Democratic primary challengers. Forty-six percent of Democrats say they would support Hochul for their party's gubernatorial nomination, compared to 12% for Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and 10% for Rep. Ritchie Torres.

"Two potential Hochul rivals for the Democratic nomination for governor next year - Delgado and Torres -remain largely unknown to a majority of voters and a majority of Democrats," Greenberg said.

In the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, 35% of Republican voters said they would support Stefanik, the six-term GOP representative from upstate New York. Stefanik, who is part of the House Republican leadership and a strong supporter and ally of President Donald Trump, has said she is seriously considering a run for governor. 

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents a swing congressional district in suburban New York City and who is also eyeing a campaign for governor, grabbed 22% support in the poll. Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman, another major Trump ally and potential gubernatorial candidate, was at 11%.

Trump stands at 40% approval and 57% disapproval among New York State voters, according to the poll, with his favorable rating at 38%-59%.

Greenberg noted that "81% of Democrats disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, while 82% of Republicans approve, and independents are closely divided."

The survey had an overall sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.